Methodology
How every number on this site is calculated
This page is the single reference for where our data comes from, exactly how each metric is computed, how often it refreshes, and where it can be wrong. If a figure anywhere on the site looks off, this page should let you check our work — or prove us wrong.
Summary
- Bitcoin prices come from CoinGecko (Coinbase as fallback); MSTR prices from Yahoo Finance.
- Strategy's Bitcoin holdings and capital structure come from Strategy's own tracker, which restates its SEC filings.
- Live pages are rebuilt on every deploy; a page's "last updated" date only advances when its figures actually change.
- Your portfolio never leaves your browser — none of these sources ever receive your positions.
- Every formula below is stated in full, with its known limitations.
Who produces this
BTC Exposure is written and maintained by the BTC Exposure editorial team, an independent publisher of Bitcoin-exposure analytics. We are not affiliated with Strategy (MSTR), any ETF issuer, or any exchange, and we hold no paid placements from them. Every calculation is described on this page in enough detail to reproduce it from the cited sources.
We do publish affiliate links, each marked “paid link”, for tools we use (listed on the about page); those relationships never affect the figures on this site, which are computed mechanically from the sources below.
Data sources
| Input | Source | Refresh |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin spot price | CoinGecko, falling back to Coinbase | On each dashboard refresh and each deploy |
| Bitcoin daily history | Blockchain.com market-price chart | On each deploy (2-year window) |
| MSTR and preferred prices | Yahoo Finance (Stooq attempted first) | On each dashboard refresh and each deploy |
| Strategy BTC holdings | Strategy's Bitcoin tracker, originating in 8-K filings | When Strategy discloses a purchase |
| Diluted shares | Strategy's assumed diluted shares outstanding (basic shares plus convertible notes, options and unvested awards) from its tracker and the purchases ledger; 10-Q / 10-K filings for quarter-end figures in the history dataset | Weekly, with each purchase report |
| Debt, preferreds, USD Reserve, USD Cash | Strategy's tracker; USD Reserve and USD Cash balances are also reported in each weekly 8-K | Weekly, when Strategy updates its tracker |
| Other treasury companies | BitcoinTreasuries.net plus company filings | Reviewed monthly |
Price requests are proxied through our own edge function so that no third-party feed ever sees your portfolio. The proxy forwards a price request and nothing else — see the privacy policy.
Formulas
Simple mNAV
The equity-only view: what the stock market values Strategy at, per dollar of Bitcoin it owns. Above 1.0x is a premium, below is a discount. Live reading: MSTR mNAV today. Daily history: mNAV history dataset.
Full (enterprise-value) mNAV
Counts every claim on the Bitcoin, not just common equity. The cash subtracted is both of the dollar balances Strategy reports in its weekly 8-K: the USD Reserve (held for preferred dividends and interest) and USD Cash (held for general purposes) — the same cash Strategy subtracts in its own enterprise value. Until October 2026 we subtracted only the USD Reserve, which overstated full mNAV by about 0.01x. Full mNAV is higher than simple mNAV whenever convertible debt and preferred equity together exceed that cash — which is the case today; the gap is the leverage in the capital structure. If Strategy's cash ever exceeded those claims, full mNAV would sit below simple mNAV.
Market cap here is the MSTR price times assumed diluted shares, not basic shares outstanding, so it is higher than the market cap most quote sites and Strategy's own dashboard show. Strategy also publishes its own mNAV, which uses a different definition; we do not reproduce it.
BTC per share and sats per share
sats per share = BTC per share × 100,000,000
Strategy's own accretion KPI. Rising sats per share means capital raises bought more Bitcoin than they diluted.
Implied Bitcoin price via MSTR
The effective price per Bitcoin you pay by buying the stock instead of spot.
Effective Bitcoin exposure
+ MSTR shares × BTC per share
+ spot-ETF shares × fund BTC per share
+ STRK shares × 0.1 × BTC per share
STRK is counted at its $1,000-strike conversion ratio of 0.1 MSTR shares, which is the worst-case mandatory-conversion assumption. STRC, STRF and STRD carry no conversion right and contribute zero effective Bitcoin — they are yield instruments, not exposure.
Cycle forecast
The quarterly forecast takes the recency-weighted average shape of the 2012, 2016 and 2020 post-halving cycles (weighted 1 / 2 / 3), then shifts that shape down in log space to the premium the current cycle has actually delivered. Bull and bear bands widen with horizon and are skewed by trailing momentum. Every parameter is derived from price history; none are hand-picked. The page states the current parameter values on each build, and includes a backtest against realised prices so you can judge whether the method brackets reality.
Update cadence and dating
- Dashboard figures update whenever you press Refresh.
- Published data pages are rebuilt on every deploy, and at minimum weekly via a scheduled rebuild.
- "Last substantive update" dates advance only when the underlying figures change. A deploy that only touches styling or copy does not re-date a page — so the dates in our sitemap and structured data mean something.
- If a price feed is down at build time, the page is generated from the last successful values and labelled as cached rather than silently showing stale numbers as live.
Known limitations
- Share counts lag. Diluted share counts come from the most recent disclosure. Strategy issues equity continuously through its ATM programme, so between filings the true count is higher than ours — which makes our mNAV slightly low and our sats per share slightly high.
- Historical share counts are partly estimated. In the mNAV history dataset, Bitcoin holdings follow each 8-K disclosure, but diluted share counts are reported only at quarter ends (10-Q / 10-K) and in Strategy's weekly purchases ledger, so days in between are a straight-line estimate and are marked as such. Each day's Bitcoin price is taken at the 4pm ET MSTR close, so both prices describe the same moment.
- Full mNAV has no history. We hold Strategy's current debt, preferreds and cash, not a dated history of them, so the dashboard shows no 30-day, 6-month or 1-year change for full mNAV rather than estimate one.
- Preferred market values are approximations based on issue size and recent prices, not a continuous mark.
- ETF Bitcoin-per-share ratios drift downward as management fees accrue; we update them periodically rather than daily.
- Forecasts are not predictions. Three prior cycles is a very small sample, and there is no guarantee the next one rhymes. Treat the cycle model as a framework for thinking about magnitude, not a target price.
- Nothing here is investment advice. See the terms of use.
Corrections
If you believe a figure or formula on this site is wrong, tell us: email support@btcexposure.com, or use the Feedback link in the dashboard footer. We aim to correct confirmed errors in data or formulas within one business day of verifying them. When a correction materially changes a published figure, we update the page, advance its last-updated date, and note what changed and when. Where a calculation method changes rather than an input, we describe the change on this page.
Reuse
Our original datasets — currently the daily mNAV history — are free to reuse, including commercially, with attribution to btcexposure.com. Charts and figures may be cited with a link to the source page.
Last reviewed October 9, 2026. Educational information only — not investment advice.